Babies? No, no!

By Annabelle Lin

 

The fertility rate in Macao is dropping obviously.

 

One by one, countries and regions in East Asia demonstrated a lower birth rate. Reasons may be due to some types of birth control program by the government like in China. Others may be a result from economic constraints.

 

Japan and Asian tigers: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong were the first few places where a decline in the birth rate was witnessed when economic development took off. Ironically, developing countries like China and Vietnam adopted a concept of family planning when they started to have an economic reform from the 1980s onwards.

The concept was that the adoption of control over fertility would lead to the result observed in Japan in the 1950s and 1960s, where the fertility rate would fall to the replacement level of two children per woman and then the country's population would remain at the same level. Even China's one-child policy was designed to reduce fertility in China to about replacement level. However, in every Asian country and region where the fertility rate fell to replacement level, it continued to fall to levels described as a very low fertility, which is below 1.5 births per woman. In Asia, the very low fertility is found in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore, Thailand and probably mainland China.

 

"Housing prices go up, birth rates go down," Nancy Kwok, a 28-year-old who lives in a 500 sq ft apartment in old town Macao with her husband and mother-in-law. There is no room or money for babies, said Nancy. "If we had a baby there would be nowhere to put him."

"Raising a child is a really expensive proposition," said Nancy, "and home prices have grown really, really quickly... it is making it really difficult to afford housing or education and that could defer the decision of having children."

 

The Macao government does not have any birth control programs but the fertility rate has dropped every year since 2016. It is widely considered that a very low fertility rate resulted from various barriers faced by women who, now better-educated and more career-oriented, have to combine work with family responsibilities. This is particularly an issue in Macao's economy where long hours of work are expected for full-time workers and it is difficult to find part-time jobs that are not low-paying. Female employees are unwilling to change the current working conditions because they fear they will lose whatever competitive advantage they may have.

 

In Macao, the birth rate dropped 8.6% between 2016 and 2018. Nancy said the housing market likely is a contributing factor. Nancy and her husband wanted to buy a home and become more financially stable before having children. The couple tried to buy a home in the old town but quickly realized the available homes were out of their price range. The two have steady incomes, her husband is a policeman and she is a receptionist.

In the short term, a very low fertility and smaller population increases GDP per capita because both households and nations benefit from the reduced costs of having fewer children.

 

In the long term, however, the size of the labor force falls sharply, the total population size spirals downward and the population ages dramatically. These longer-term effects are already well under way in Japan. Socially, in the short term, the young couples desiring to have children are frustrated. For example, the desired family size of couples in Japan has never fallen below two. And in the longer term, society may adjust itself to the absence of children, making a reversal highly problematic, which is called the low fertility trap hypothesis. An absence of children and young workers may also generate a "demographic malaise" - a deficit of incentive- as has been claimed in the case of Japan.

 

As time ticks on and Nancy gets older, she worries they might never be in a situation where they can have children.

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Copyright © Umac Bridges Fall 2018